PUBLIC BETA · SUPPORTED PLAYER-SEASONS
Counterfactuals
Pick a player and move some of his field-goal attempts between four broad floor areas.
Only the two selected shot shares change. Total field-goal attempts and the player's prior shooting expectation in each zone stay fixed.
01Observed player-season
Pick a player-season
The supported set includes 447 players and 1,147 observed player-seasons. Availability depends on prior zone history and historical peer support.
Each zone's expected value comes only from seasons before the one selected here.
02Edit
Set the transfer
The lists include only source and destination zones supported for this player-season.
- Non-rim 2
- →
- Rim
- →
2AMechanical output
Mechanical expected-value change
+0.0
expected points / 100 FGA
Player-specific prior expectation
The calculation keeps this player's pre-season zone expectations and total field-goal attempts fixed.
Arithmetic
03Shot profile
Current vs counterfactual
The court has the same four broad zones as the calculation. It does not estimate an exact shot location inside any zone.
Rim
Non-rim 2
Corner 3
Above-break 3
04Plausibility
Plausible?
How does this compare with similar players?
Well within comparable player history
- Current profile
- Proposed profile
- Current distance
- Proposed distance
- Typical-range cutoff (P80)
- Most unusual observed
The comparison uses the full four-zone shot profile and the five closest historical profiles in the fixed peer group. Distances are measured in percentage-point space.
Current · Counterfactual
The whole-profile result above uses all four zones. This range shows the selected destination alone. The thin line is the full observed range; the heavy line is its middle 80%.
05Historical context
Closest observed profiles
These are re-ranked by shot distribution and season-normalized offensive shot volume after each edit.
The nearest profile may still be far away.
The primary match uses four shot shares plus FGA / 36. It does not compare player quality or expected performance, and it does not show that the edited profile would work in games.
06Boundary
Not established
This calculation does not answer the questions below.
- That the requested shot mix is realistic for this player.
- That the player would keep the same shooting efficiency in games.
- That teammates or opponents would respond in the same way.
- That the mechanical difference would become additional game points.
- That team Net Rating would change by this amount.
- That a coach could create the requested mix.
Methods / assumptions
Held fixed in the calculation:
- Total field-goal attempts stay the same.
- The player's prior expected conversion in each shot zone stays the same.
- Free throws, turnovers, offensive rebounds, minutes, and usage stay the same.
- Teammates, opponents, role, defensive attention, and shot difficulty within each zone stay the same.
- The calculation does not try to explain how the player would create the new attempts.
The player list covers supported higher-volume rotation seasons, not every NBA player. The plausibility label compares the complete four-zone profile with five-neighbor distances inside the selected player's fixed historical peer set.