PUBLIC BETA · SUPPORTED PLAYER-SEASONS
Counterfactuals
Pick a player and move some of his field-goal attempts between four broad floor areas.
Only the two selected shot shares change. Total field-goal attempts and the player's prior shooting expectation in each zone stay fixed.
[01]
Observed player-season
Pick a player-season
The supported set includes 447 players and 1,147 observed player-seasons. Availability depends on prior zone history and historical peer support.
Each zone's expected value comes only from seasons before the one selected here.
[02]
Edit
Set the transfer
The lists include only source and destination zones supported for this player-season.
- Non-rim 2
- →
- Rim
- →
[2A]
Mechanical output
Mechanical expected-value change
+0.0
expected points / 100 FGA
Player-specific prior expectation
The calculation keeps this player's pre-season zone expectations and total field-goal attempts fixed.
Arithmetic
[03]
Shot profile
Current vs counterfactual
The court has the same four broad zones as the calculation. It does not estimate an exact shot location inside any zone.
Rim
Non-rim 2
Corner 3
Above-break 3
[04]
Plausibility
Plausible?
How does this compare with similar players?
Well within comparable player history
- Current profile
- Proposed profile
- Current distance
- Proposed distance
- Typical-range cutoff (P80)
- Most unusual observed
The comparison uses the full four-zone shot profile and the five closest historical profiles in the fixed peer group. Distances are measured in percentage-point space.
Current · Counterfactual
The whole-profile result above uses all four zones. This range shows the selected destination alone. The thin line is the full observed range; the heavy line is its middle 80%.
[05]
Historical context
Closest observed profiles
These are re-ranked by shot distribution and season-normalized offensive shot volume after each edit.
The nearest profile may still be far away.
The primary match uses four shot shares plus FGA / 36. It does not compare player quality or expected performance, and it does not show that the edited profile would work in games.
[06]
Boundary
Not established
This calculation does not answer the questions below.
- That the requested shot mix is realistic for this player.
- That the player would keep the same shooting efficiency in games.
- That teammates or opponents would respond in the same way.
- That the mechanical difference would become additional game points.
- That team Net Rating would change by this amount.
- That a coach could create the requested mix.
Methods / assumptions
Held fixed in the calculation:
- Total field-goal attempts stay the same.
- The player's prior expected conversion in each shot zone stays the same.
- Free throws, turnovers, offensive rebounds, minutes, and usage stay the same.
- Teammates, opponents, role, defensive attention, and shot difficulty within each zone stay the same.
- The calculation does not try to explain how the player would create the new attempts.
The player list covers supported higher-volume rotation seasons, not every NBA player. The plausibility label compares the complete four-zone profile with five-neighbor distances inside the selected player's fixed historical peer set.